🔗 Share this article The Failure of the 28-Article Peace Proposal for Ukraine: How Peace Negotiations Continue to Stumble Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv. The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution". Nocturnal Warfare As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners. Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout. Ongoing Risks Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination. Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term. Unsuccessful Negotiations The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits. Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue. Political Considerations It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east. The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead. Opposing Positions Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome. On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit. Present Conditions Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position. These two forces are driving the talks. Assessment and Future It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose. While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.