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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."