đź”— Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation. Changing Odds in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the president had been apprehended. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the odds had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated Dennis Kelleher. Several of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on recently aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs. This sector were examined under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."